My wife golfs with a ladies group in Florida sometimes.  They all chip in a few bucks for prizes, and some of that money goes to the golfer who is closest to the pin on a designated hole. My wife’s group was last to play this hole, and they could see the best effort so far; a marker stood about 9 feet from the pin.  One of the ladies in this last group hit a shot that came to rest closer to the pin.  She now stood to scoop up some prize money. Then my wife hit a shot she thought was off line, but it came off a banked part of the green and rolled all the way down to the hole.  A hole-in-one! Her prize was $30.  That stack of U.S. singles sits on her nightstand.  Eventually, she’ll spend that money, but not yet. For now, that money isn’t fungible.  One day it will become fungible, but right now it serves as a pleasant reminder of a fun day.

Jeremy Siegel recently wrote, with Jeremy Schwartz, the sixth edition of his popular book, Stocks for the long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies .  I read the fifth edition nearly a decade ago, and because the book is good enough to reread, this sixth edition gave me the perfect opportunity to read it again. I won’t repeat comments from my first review .  I’ll stick to material that either I chose not to comment on earlier, or is new in this edition. Bonds and Inflation “Yale economist Irving Fisher” has had a “long-held belief that bonds were overrated as safe investments in a world with uncertain inflation.”  Investors learned this lesson the hard way recently as interest rates spiked at a time when long-term bonds paid ultra-low returns.  This created double-digit losses in bond investments, despite the perception that bonds are safe.  Siegel adds “because of the uncertainty of inflation, bonds can be qu...

Michael Lewis’ latest book Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon is an entertaining account of the journey of Sam Bankman-Fried and his cryptocurrency trading firm FTX.  Lewis’ many critics wanted the story to be a deep dive into Sam’s criminal activity and fraud within the cryptocurrency industry, but that’s not the story Lewis is telling. Relative to social and business norms, Sam is an outlier of huge proportions.  So much so, that his meteoric rise in the cryptocurrency business world would have seemed impossible in advance.  This is the story Lewis told. However, Sam is currently on trial for (allegedly) swindling billions from traders and investors.  Those most interested in this story wanted to learn more details of the swindling. Some critics accuse Lewis of having been taken in by Sam.  I didn’t get this from the book.  Lewis did discuss Sam’s seeming transgressions, he just didn’t dwell on them because they weren’t central to the stor...

The origin of the so-called 4% rule is WIlliam Bengen’s 1994 journal paper Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data .  Experts often criticize this paper saying it doesn’t make sense to keep your retirement withdrawals the same in the face of a portfolio that is either running out of money or is growing wildly.  However, Bengen never said that retirees shouldn’t adjust their withdrawals.  In fact, Bengen discussed the conditions under which it made sense to increase or decrease withdrawals. Bengen imagined a retiree who withdrew some percentage of their portfolio in the first year of retirement, and adjusted this dollar amount by inflation for withdrawals in future years (ignoring the growth or decline of the portfolio).  He used this approach to find a safe starting percentage for the first year’s withdrawal, but he made it clear that real retirees should adjust their withdrawal amounts in some circumstances. In his thought experiment, Bengen had 51 retire...

Ben Carlson says You Probably Need Less Money Than You Think for Retirement .  His “favorite research on this topic comes from an Employee Benefit Research Institute study in 2018 that analyzed the spending habits of retirees during their first two decades of retirement.”  Unfortunately, this study’s results aren’t what they appear to be. The study results Here are the main conclusions from this study: Individuals with less than $200,000 in non-housing assets immediately before retirement had spent down (at the median) about one-quarter of their assets. Those with between $200,000 and $500,000 immediately before retirement had spent down 27.2 percent. Retirees with at least $500,000 immediately before retirement had spent down only 11.8 percent within the first 20 years of retirement at the median. About one-third of all sampled retirees had increased their assets over the first 18 years of retirement. The natural conclusion from these results is that retirees aren’t spending...

We’ve heard for some time now that China’s rise as an economic superpower is inevitable, and that China will surely surpass the U.S.  Extrapolating from the past few decades, this appears certain.  However, changes made by China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, have cast doubt on China’s ascendancy.  Chun Han Wong has covered China for the Wall Street Journal since 2014 and has written the book Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China’s Superpower Future .  His descriptions of the massive changes Xi is making lead me to believe that China’s growth will at least slow, if not falter altogether. My take on China is hardly original, and does not come from a deep understanding of China.  It comes down to the simple observation that for a society to become wealthier over the long term, its most brilliant and driven citizens must have the freedom to innovate.  We can’t know in advance which citizens will make a big impact, so this freedom must be available to ...

There are many mistakes we can make when investing in mutual funds or exchange-traded funds.  Joe Wiggins discusses these mistakes from a unique perspective in his book The Intelligent Fund Investor .  He covers some familiar territory, but in a way that is different from what I’ve seen before.  Although most of the examples in the book are from the UK, the points of discussion are relevant to investors from anywhere. Each of the first nine chapters cover one topic area where fund investors often make poor choices.  Here I will discuss some of the points that stood out to me. “Don’t invest in star fund managers.”  There are many reasons to avoid star fund managers, but I never thought of lack of oversight by the fund company being one of them.  “Individuals working in risk and compliance have little hope of exerting any control – they are likely to be relatively junior and considered expendable.  If they go into battle against a star fund manager, ther...

I’ve noticed an increase in the number of businesses offering discounts for paying in cash.  I’m happy to see this for two reasons.  One is that those who pay in cash (or some equivalent)  have been subsidizing credit card users who collect various perks at others’ expense.  The second is that I’m happy to have some of my purchases not contribute transaction fees to Canada’s banking oligopoly. Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: Teksavvy has some advice for the CRTC aimed at improving competition among internet providers.  The most interesting one is to “Examine functional or structural separation , where large providers are split into two distinct companies. Under such an arrangement, one company owns and operates a network and sells wholesale access to it to all comers on an equitable basis. The other purchases that access on the same terms and rates as every other competitor, and then offers it to customers as retail internet service. Canada'...

After only 10 short weeks, I’ve managed to open a checking account at a U.S. bank and move some money into it.  Some of the delay was due to misunderstandings on my part about what steps I was supposed to take next, and some of it was due to weird restrictions on the type of account in Canada that can be used to transfer money out of the country.  Mostly, though, it was the fact that there are many steps and each one seems to take a few business days. I doubt that the specific details of my experience matter much.  The main takeaway is that if you’re considering opening a bank account in the U.S., consider starting the process long before you need the account to be in place. Here are my posts for the past two weeks: Bad Retirement Spending Plans My Answer to ‘Can You Help Me With My Investments?’ Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: Robb Engen at Boomer and Echo describes a smart two-fund solution for investing in retirement. Tom Bradley at Steadyhand exp...

Occasionally, a friend or family member asks for help with their investments.  Whether or not I can help depends on many factors, and this article is my attempt to gather my thoughts for the common case where the person asking is dissatisfied with their bank or other seller of expensive mutual funds or segregated funds.  I’ve written this as though I’m speaking directly to someone who wants help, and I’ve added some details to an otherwise general discussion for concreteness. Assessing the situation I’ve taken a look at your portfolio.  You’ve got $600,000 invested, 60% in stocks, and 40% in bonds.  You pay $12,000 per year ($1000/month) in fees that were technically disclosed to you in some deliberately confusing documents, but you didn’t know that before I told you.  These fees are roughly half for the poor financial advice you’re getting, and half for running the poor mutual funds you own. It’s pretty easy for a financial advisor to put your savings into some...

I mentioned a month ago that I was trying out BMO InvestorLine’s high-interest savings accounts (HISAs) that are structured as mutual funds (BMT104, BMT109, and BMT114).  They pay exactly the advertised rate of 4.35%, but I couldn’t tell this from the confusing list of transactions.  Looking at the month-end balances, I was able to determine that they pay 1/365 of the annual interest each day, accumulating as simple interest over a month, and the accumulated interest is paid each month.  So, longer months pay more interest than shorter months, which is different from most other interest-bearing accounts I’ve had in my life. My most recent post is: Bad Retirement Spending Plans Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: John Robertson signed for a new Ford vehicle, and now Ford is demanding an extra $4000. Nathan Proctor says companies are using legal tricks to get us to pay extra in the form of subscriptions for products we’ve already bought.  He’s fightin...

A recent research paper by Chen and Munnell from Boston College asks the important question “ Do Retirees Want Constant, Increasing, or Decreasing Consumption? ”.  The accepted wisdom until recently was that retirees naturally want to spend less as they age.  This new research challenges this conclusion. What we all agree on is that the average retiree spends less each year (adjusted for inflation) over the course of retirement.  However, averages can hide a lot of information.  The debate is whether this decreasing spending is voluntary or not.  However, it’s important to recognize that the answer is different for each retiree.  Some don’t spend less over time, some spend less voluntarily, and some are forced to spend less as their savings dwindle. I’ve been saying for some time that not all spending reductions by retirees are voluntary and that this affects the average spending levels across all retirees.  I’ve discussed this subject with many people...

I prefer to have as few bank accounts and investment accounts as possible.  However, there are RRSPs, TFSAs, non-registered accounts, and Canadian and U.S. dollars that drive me to open ever more accounts.  The latest reason I had to open a new account seems the silliest to me.  I have a U.S. dollar chequing account as part of an InvestorLine account.  It behaves like any other BMO U.S. dollar chequing account except that I can’t do a global money transfer from it.  So, I had to open a “normal” U.S. chequing account at a BMO branch.  So, now when I want to send money to the U.S., I have to move money from InvestorLine to my new “regular” U.S. dollar chequing account, and then from there to the U.S.  When I opened this new account, the bank employee asked what name I’d like to give it.  I was tempted to say “stupid,” but I settled on “USD.” Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: Jason Pereira has a strong take on the supposed financia...

I recently moved some cash into BMO InvestorLine’s high-interest savings accounts (HISAs) that are structured as mutual funds.  Their designations are BMT104, BMT109, and BMT114, and they purportedly pay 4.35% annual interest (which they can change whenever they like).  However, the way they report the monthly interest payments is so baffling that I wasn’t able to sort it out in my first 15 minutes of trying.  A further complication is the following text in the HISA description: “The Bank may pay, monthly or quarterly, compensation to your Dealer at an annual rate of up to 0.25% of the daily closing balance in the BMO HISA.”  I couldn’t find any evidence of such a charge, but I haven’t been invested for a full quarter, and I can’t yet say that such a charge isn’t buried somehow in the confusing reporting.  I have more digging to do before I can recommend these HISAs. Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: Preet Banerjee explains the dangers of Robi...

My most recent post is: Finding a Financial Advisor Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: Mr. Money Mustache has decided that he has become too frugal and needs to loosen up.  He’s not alone.  I know many people who spend way below their means, although they are greatly outnumbered by overspenders.  I’ve been told by high-end financial advisors that a high proportion of their clients are underspenders, but that’s an extreme example of survivorship bias.  Underspenders need to learn to spend a little in ways that will make them and others they care about happy.  Sadly, because people tend to embrace arguments they already believe, Mr. Money Mustache’s article is likely to resonate with overspenders more than it reaches underspenders.  Given the reach of his blog hopefully he’ll help a few people with these ideas. Tom Bradley explains the many things that nobody knows, but people think financial advisors do know.  He goes on to explain th...

After reading yet another article on how to find a good financial advisor, I was struck by how useless the advice is for most people.  The problem is that how you should proceed depends on your income and net worth.  There is no one-size-fits-all solution. Let’s consider a couple of examples to illustrate what I mean. Case 1:   Meet Amy.  She’s in her 30s, earns $65,000 per year, and has $10,000 saved.  She’s learned that how she invests can make a big difference in how much money she will have saved by the time she retires.  She knows she needs good advice and would like to find a financial advisor.  She’s also read that it’s best to find a fiduciary. How should Amy proceed?  To start, Amy should get some hockey equipment to protect her body from all the doors that will slam in her face.  She is nowhere close to the type of client fiduciaries want. Case 2: Susan is in her early 60s, earns $800,000 per year, and has $10 million saved.  ...

I came across yet another case of a furious investor whose advisor had promised a minimum return, but the portfolio lost money.  There is a lot wrong with this picture.  On the client side, they often believe that advisors have some meaningful level of control over returns and that advisors can somehow steer around bear markets, which is nonsense.  Advisors can choose a risk level.  The only way to guarantee a (low) return is to take little or no risk.  On the advisor side, I can only assume that many advisors are under so much pressure to land clients that they make promises they know they can’t keep unless they get lucky.  All the while, the management above these advisors know full well what is going on. Here are my posts for the past four weeks: Giving With a Warm Hand The Case for Delaying OAS has Improved Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: Robb Engen at Boomer and Echo sings the praises of Vanguard Canada’s Asset Allocation ETFs....

Canadians who collect Old Age Security (OAS) now get a 10% increase in benefits when they reach age 75.  The amount of the increase isn’t huge, but it’s better than nothing.  A side effect of this increase is that it makes delaying OAS benefits past age 65 a little more compelling. The standard age for starting OAS benefits is 65, but you can delay them for up to 5 years in return for a 0.6% increase in benefits for each month you delay.  So, the maximum increase is 36% if you take OAS at 70. A strategy some retirees use when it comes to the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and OAS is to take them as early as possible and invest the money.  They hope to outperform the CPP and OAS increases they would get if they delayed starting their benefits.  In a previous post I looked at how well their investments would have to perform for this strategy to win .  Here I update the OAS analysis to take into account the 10% OAS increase at age 75. This analysis is only relevant...

I expect to be leaving an inheritance to my sons, and I’d rather give them some of it while I’m alive instead of waiting until after both my wife and I have passed away.  As the expression goes, I’d like to give some of the money with a warm hand instead of a cold one. I have no intention of sacrificing my own retirement happiness by giving away too much, but the roaring bull market since I retired in mid-2017 has made some giving possible.  Back then I thought stock prices were somewhat elevated, and I included a market decline in my investment projections to protect against adverse sequence-of-returns risk. Happily for me, a large market decline never happened.  In fact, the markets kept roaring for the most part.  As it turned out, I could have retired a few years earlier.  A large market decline in the near future is still one of several possibilities, but the gap between our spending and the money available is now large enough that we are quite safe.  ...

I’ve lost count of the number of real estate agents and mortgage brokers in Canada and the U.S. who’ve told me that right now is a fantastic time to buy a rental property.  Usually, they don’t own any rental properties themselves and have no plans to buy one now, but they’re sure that it would be a great time for me to buy. When I say that I’m not interested in using my capital to buy the part-time job of being a landlord, they tell me to hire a management company.  When I tell them I’ve heard from landlords that management companies soak up most or all of the profit from being a landlord, they usually give up on me. I guess my message here is that I’ve found a fairly short path to ending an uninvited sales pitch about real estate.  You’re welcome. Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: Robb Engen shows that TFSAs can be very useful for smoothing out life’s financial bumps without creating a big tax bill.  This gives you time for the necessary next step...

I find behavioural economics and other aspects of psychology interesting, but I often get lost between a study’s results and the conclusions people draw from these results.  A good example is the oft-repeated fact that most people believe they are above-average drivers.  I have no doubt that a large majority of people will consistently report that they are above-average drivers.  However, the tidy conclusion that these people are overconfident isn’t obvious to me. There is no single measure of the quality of a driver.  Imagine two brothers where one believes that it is crucial to observe the speed limit at all times, and the other believes it is prudent to always stay up with the flow of traffic to minimize relative speeds.  These standards of driving skill are in conflict, and each brother judges the other to be a poor driver.  Each brother believes he is the better driver based in part on his view of what makes a driver good. It may be that both brothers ...

I haven’t had many people ask me whether I’d consider hosting a podcast, but it’s come up enough to make me think about it.  I have some solid reasons for not doing a podcast: it’s way more work than I’m willing to do, and my voice isn’t good.  To illustrate the best reason, though, consider this hypothetical exchange: MJ : Welcome to the podcast, Dr. G. Guest : I’m happy to be here. MJ : Let’s get right to it.  Please describe your research interests. Guest : I work on retirement decumulation strategies, safe withdrawal rates, and risk levels of equities. MJ : From what data do you draw your conclusions? Guest : I use worldwide historical returns of stocks and bonds. MJ : How do you deal with the challenge that we don’t have enough historical return data to directly draw statistically significant conclusions? Guest : Uh … I perform simulations drawing from the available pool of data. MJ : So, you create seemingly plausible return histories to extrapolate from the small p...

In his book Bullshift: How Optimism Bias Threatens Your Finances , Certified Financial Planner and portfolio manager John De Goey makes a strong case that investors and their advisors have a bias for optimistic return expectations that leads them to take on too much risk.  However, his conviction that we are headed into a prolonged bear market shows similar overconfidence in the other direction.  Readers would do well to recognize that actual results could be anywhere between these extremes and plan accordingly. Problems in the financial advice industry The following examples of De Goey’s criticism of the financial advice industry are spot-on. “Investors often accept the advice of their advisers not because the logic put forward is so compelling but because it is based on a viewpoint that everyone seems to prefer. People simply want happy explanations to be true and are more likely to act if they buy into the happy ending being promised.”  We prefer to work with those who...

My portfolio lost 4.9% in 2022, while my benchmark return was a loss of 6.2%.  This small gap came from my decision to shift to bonds based on a formula using the blended Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio of the world’s stocks .  After deciding on this CAPE-based approach, all the portfolio adjustments were decided by a spreadsheet, not my own hunches.  I started the year 20% in fixed income, it grew to a high of 27% as the spreadsheet told me to sell stocks, and now it’s back to 20% after the spreadsheet said to buy back stocks.  This cut my losses in 2022 by 1.3 percentage points. My return also looks good compared to most stock/bond portfolios because I avoided the rout in long-term bonds.  My fixed income consists of high-interest savings accounts (not at big banks), a couple of GICs, and short-term bonds.  If long-term bonds ever look attractive enough, I may choose to own them.  My thinking for now is that I prefer the safe part ...

What a difference a year makes.  During the COVID-19 lockdowns, many people saved a lot of money, either from their pay (if they were lucky enough to keep their jobs) or from government payments.  As the world opened up, people started spending this money and businesses couldn’t keep up.  These businesses still can’t get all the new employees they want but the problem has eased considerably compared to a year ago.  I saw a small example in Florida recently.  I was in a burger chain restaurant and saw a sign saying they were looking for employees at $12 per hour.  Last March, the sign in this same restaurant offered $18 per hour and implored workers to “START RIGHT NOW!” Here are some short takes and some weekend reading: Cliff Asness accuses private equity investors and managers of “volatility laundering.”  Failing to value private equity frequently and accurately creates the illusion of smooth returns. Scotiabank’s new President and CEO Scott Thomson...