Short Takes: Estimating Future Returns, Leveraged Blow-Up, and more

The email delivery of my blog posts is run through Feedburner, and Google has announced that they’re dropping this email service in September.  So, if my posts are to still get out to email subscribers, I’ll need to find some other way.  My first attempt to find a replacement came up empty.  Suggestions for an easy solution are welcome.

I managed only one post in the past two weeks:

If Simplicity in Investing is Good, Why is My Portfolio Complicated?

Here are some short takes and some weekend reading:

The Rational Reminder Podcast takes an interesting look at how to estimate future stock returns.  What they’re trying to do is harder than what I did.  I didn’t concern myself with what would happen in the near future.  I just used a conservative estimate of corporate earnings growth, and presumed that the market price-to-earnings ratio would decline to more typical levels by the time I get to be 100 years old.

Bill Hwang’s huge personal loss with his Archegos family office doesn’t seem very relevant to personal finance, but it does serve as a reminder of the dangers of leverage (borrowing to invest).  Warren Buffett says “Never risk what you have and need for what we don't have and don't need.”

Big Cajun Man reports on changes to the disability tax credit in the latest federal budget.