I’ve never been very optimistic about making money with collectibles. When I was young I dreamed of owning one of the coins listed in a coin book with a value of many thousands of dollars, but I never found any of those coins in my change. A while back I was asked to take a look at a deceased family member’s coin collection, and this gave me a chance to see how this collection fared as an investment.
The coins I examined were collected over a great many years from change; none of the coins were purchased from other collectors. So, the “investment” cost was just the face value of each coin (adjusted for inflation).
For this little test, I decided to focus only on coins at least 50 years old. Among these coins, I was surprised to discover that their total current value exceeded the total face value (adjusted for inflation based on each coin’s date) by 19%. This means that the average rate of return was about inflation plus 0.25%. In fact, the return is a little better than this because some coins were saved in a later year than the year that they were minted.
By stock market investing standards, beating inflation by less than 1% over several decades is quite dismal, but I was surprised that the collection even kept up with inflation. I remain pessimistic about collectibles as investments, but many collectors are in it for the love of collecting rather than investment returns.
A good additional test would be to check how much these coins actually sell for (eg. on ebay).
ReplyDeleteI remember collecting hockey cards and buying the guides to see how much they were worth, but I then learned that the guide values were actually about twice what I could get at the sports card shop. Perhaps one would do better if they sold them oneself, I never pursued it.
Gene: For a quick sale, half of the guide value is a reasonable estimate. As with any other type of sales, the more work you're willing to do to find a buyer, the higher the price you can get. Coin novices tend to overestimate the condition of a coin which inflates value estimates considerably. I'm reasonably confident that my value estimate of the collection I looked at was reasonable.
ReplyDeleteYour original article reminds me of a tongue-in-cheek comment I heard from a financial commentator (and I probably mentioned it here already). He said that since US postage went up faster than inflation, their permanent letter-mail stamps were a great inflation hedge.
ReplyDeleteIn that case, the condition of the stamps is irrelevant since their purchase power remains intact.
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