Posts
Showing posts from 2009
This New Year’s Eve I’m reminded of a Gary Larson cartoon depicting a final exam at ditch-digger school with the reminder “Have you got ... 1. Your shovel? 2. Backup shovel?” In the same vein, I ask: Do you have a designated driver? A backup designated driver? Have a happy and safe new year.
The Psychology of Medical Coverage
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
For the last couple of years my family doctor has offered me the option of purchasing extended health coverage to pay for any of his services that I would have to pay for, such as copying records, immunizations, and filling out medical forms. The list is actually 23 items long. I’ve never bothered to pay this “block fee” with the reasoning that I rarely need any of these services, and they are relatively cheap even if I need them one day. However, over the past year, I actually spent a total of $60 on services from my family doctor that weren’t covered by provincial health insurance. Each time I coughed up another $20, I felt like I was losing out. If only I had paid for the insurance, I wouldn’t have to be digging into my pocket. What if I incur more costs this year and it works out that I have to pay more than the amount of the insurance? When the papers inviting me to sign up for extended coverage for the upcoming year arrived, my first reaction was to pay. I had to think...
20/20 Hindsight
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Most of us have thought at one time or another that we’d like to use what we know now to go back in time and make different choices. Looking back at stock prices in 2009, it’s clear that a big bet on stocks in March would have paid off handsomely. In a discussion of leverage in November 2008, I came dangerously close to making a prediction: “Let me reiterate that I’m not a fan of leverage, but if there ever is an appropriate time for it, now is probably that time.” As it turns out, stocks dropped further, but are now significantly above the level on that day. Suppose that I had borrowed $250,000 against my house to invest in the TSX Composite index, which was sitting at 9424.00 that day. The lows in March would have produced a painful paper loss of nearly 20%, but I’d be ahead 24.7% as of the closing value of 11,754.61 on Christmas Eve. Assuming that I paid about $10,000 in interest on the mortgage, my net gains right now would be $51,800. That’s not a bad payoff for minima...
How to Pay Less and Keep More for Yourself
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Have you ever had the feeling that you pay more fees to your bank than you should, but you’re not sure what to do about it? If you’re a Canadian and answered yes, then Rob Carrick’s book How to Pay Less and Keep More for Your$elf: The Essential Guide to Canadian Banking and Investing may be for you. Whether your concern is savings and chequing accounts, credit cards, loans, mortgages, or investing, Carrick has useful suggestions for reducing fees and getting better interest rates. He also has good insights into working with financial advisors and the ins and outs of do-it-yourself investing. Unlike many writers, Carrick doesn’t bother to preach about the evils of debt or mutual fund fees. Instead he focuses on how to reduce interest rates on debt and fees on funds. For example, he says that debt is “an essential financial tool” in a world of expensive homes and cars. I agree when it comes to homes, but I think people should pay cash for cars. If they can’t pay cash for a car...
My Top 3 Investing Mistakes
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
This is the last regular Sunday feature looking back at selected articles from the early days of this blog before readership had ramped up. The pool of under-appreciated articles has been exhausted. Enjoy. The Dividend Guy challenged other bloggers to post their top 3 investing mistakes. Here is my contribution. 1. Putting my first savings into fixed income investments I was young and nervous because I owed $85,000 on my first mortgage. My mortgage permitted doubling monthly payments, and my wife and I were taking advantage of this feature every month; I wanted the mortgage GONE. This didn’t leave much for retirement savings, but we did manage to save some money each year. Unfortunately, I knew very little about the stock market at that time, and we put all of our savings into fixed income investments at our bank. We continued this way for several years giving up the gains available in the stock market. This was a big mistake. 2. Buying actively-managed high-cost...
Walking a Mile
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
This will be the last post until after Christmas. Have a Merry Christmas for those who celebrate it, and to everyone else, enjoy the time off work. There is a lot of truth to the saying that you shouldn’t judge people until you’ve walked a mile in their shoes. Looking at things from another person’s point of view can give useful insights. Let’s try this with financial advisors and Tiger Woods. The investing do-it-yourself crowd tends to vilify financial advisors who are actually mutual fund salespeople. The truth is that I don’t tend to think ill of these people; I just choose to protect myself from them, and I think other investors should do the same. If evil advisors were the issue, then we would have much less of a problem. Most people are basically decent and honest. The same is likely true of mutual fund salespeople. The fundamental problem is the incentive structure that they work within. Suppose Jim sells mutual funds and has hit some hard times. The economy is b...
Winning the Loser’s Game
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
The book Winning the Loser’s Game by Charles D. Ellis was a very pleasant surprise for me. I tend not to expect much from books and am pleased to learn even one interesting thing. Ellis provides consistently solid investing information from beginning to end. The presentation is clear and concise. This book is now my best recommendation for an individual investor looking for a foundation for a lifetime of investing. This book is in its fifth edition, which makes me regret not ever having seen it before. I certainly could have saved myself from financial mistakes armed with these ideas. Parts of the book are specific to U.S. investors, but they are not central to the main messages. Among other high-profile roles, Ellis has chaired investment committees at both Harvard Business School and Yale School of Management. But that doesn’t mean that he aims to baffle readers with his academic brilliance. Even concepts I thought I understood well and have seen in other books were expl...
Irrational Need for the Latest Investment to Perform Well
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Nearly a month ago I made an RRSP contribution and used the money to buy an index ETF. I then watched how it performed 10 minutes later, an hour later, a day later, etc. Even now I find myself more interested in how this ETF is performing than the rest of my portfolio. This happens every time I make a new investment or add to an existing one. Of course, this is all irrational, but I just couldn’t help being pleased that the ETF stayed above my purchase price during the first day. It shouldn’t make a difference to me whether I make $100 on this investment or some other one, but it does. I do my best to keep irrational emotions like this from affecting my decisions, but that doesn’t stop me from having the emotions. I assume I’m not alone in this need for new investments to perform well. Do other investors find themselves caring more about recent purchases than the rest of their portfolios?
Mutual Fund Front Running
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
This is a Sunday feature looking back at selected articles from the early days of this blog before readership had ramped up. Enjoy. Among the games that mutual fund managers play to artificially boost reported returns, such as closing underperforming funds and fund incubation , you can add a practice called front running. Larry Swedroe describes front running in his excellent book Rational Investing in Irrational Times . A fund family starts up a new fund hoping to report good returns and attract a flood of investors. They begin by choosing some stock that has low trading volumes so that a modest size purchase will drive its price up sharply. The fund family then purchases a block of shares for the new fund. Then they purchase a larger block of shares for one or more of their large established funds. This will drive the price of the shares up and artificially inflate to apparent returns of the new fund. Done correctly, the number of shares purchased for the established fu...
Short Takes: Trading Gift Cards, Men’s Health, and more
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
1. Do you have any gift cards you don’t intend to use, or would you like to buy a gift card at a discount? CardSwap calls itself the eBay of gift cards. I don’t know much about them other than what I learned from a press release and looking at their web site, but the idea sounds good. Are there any readers who have tried buying or selling gift cards at this web site? My biggest concern would be that some cards would come with unexpected restrictions making them less valuable than they appeared at first. The card seller may not even be aware of any restrictions. 2. It doesn’t have much to do with money, but the Big Cajun Man thinks that ED medications have improved men’s health because they are sending more men to their doctors for physicals . It’s an interesting theory, but it’s the jokes in italics that will keep you reading. 3. Larry MacDonald has put together a timeline of the huge alleged Canadian Ponzi scheme . It’s troubling that the scheme seems to have been uncovere...
MER Drag on Returns in Pictures
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
This blog has featured many attempts to explain the damage that investing fees, primarily MERs on mutual funds and ETFs, can have on your savings. This latest effort uses a picture. This picture makes use of Robert Schiller’s monthly historical data on the U.S. S&P 500 index . Although, I’d prefer to use Canadian stock market figures, U.S. figures are easier to get, and the results would look much the same for Canadian stocks. I traced the path of a $10,000 investment 50 years ago under three different conditions: 1. The money follows the S&P 500 with dividends. We track real returns, meaning that the effect of inflation is factored out. 2. The money follows the S&P 500 with dividends less MER fees of 0.17% per year. This is the MER level of the widely-popular iShares large capitalization index of Canadian stocks (XIU). 3. The money follows the S&P 500 with dividends less MER fees of 2.5% per year. This is the MER level of a typical Canadian stock mutual f...
Sometimes Frugality can be Taken Too Far
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
A while back I discovered that there were mice in the drop ceiling of my finished basement. After cleaning up the mess they made, I set some mouse traps with some peanut butter in them. Mice really seem to like peanut butter and it lasts forever in the traps. The first time I noticed that I’d caught a mouse, it had been there for a while and didn’t smell too good. After disposing of the mouse, I proceeded to try to clean up the trap to use again. The cleaning was unpleasant and the trap still stunk afterwards. It wasn’t until after I reset the trap and put it in place that I thought about how foolish it was to do all that work. The last time I checked, mouse traps at a local store range in price from about 50 cents to $2 for a “deluxe” model. So now I consider mouse traps to be disposable. If there is the slightest bit of unpleasantness in trying to dislodge a dead mouse from a trap or clean it up, it goes in the garbage with the mouse. Now I catch 3 or 4 mice per year and ...
An Experiment with the Modified 4% Rule
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Recently we discussed a modified 4% rule where we base the size of monthly withdrawals from retirement savings on the current portfolio size rather than the portfolio size at the beginning of retirement. Let’s follow this up by looking at actual market data to see how monthly retirement income is affected. Because U.S. data is more readily available, I’ve gathered returns on the S&P 500 (including dividends) since 1988, adjusted for inflation. Let’s consider the case of Rita who retired in 1988 with a portfolio worth $750,000 in today’s dollars. The actual figure in 1988 was a little over $400,000. Rita has 100% of her money in the S&P 500 index. This is obviously a more aggressive portfolio than most retirees would want, but let’s see what happens to Rita’s income. Using the modified 4% rule, Rita would start drawing 1/12 of 4% ($2500 in today’s dollars) per month. But this amount gets adjusted each month depending on whether the portfolio grows or shrinks. Assumi...
Modifying the 4% Rule
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
What amount can an investor, Ian, withdraw safely each year from a portfolio 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds? Suppose that Ian wants to fix some dollar amount and bump it up by inflation each year, and wants a high probability of not outliving the money. According to a 1994 paper by William Bengen , the answer if Ian is between 60 and 65 years old is about 4% of his starting portfolio size. This has come to be called the 4% rule. So, starting with $750,000, Ian should be able to withdraw $30,000 the first year, and then bump up the withdrawal amount by inflation each year. With reasonable probability, Ian won’t run out of money during his remaining lifetime, according to Bengen. Patrick at A Loonie Saved noted a logical inconsistency with this 4% rule . Two investors in exactly the same situation might receive different advice. Let’s illustrate this with an example. Suppose that in the first year of Ian’s retirement stocks performed very poorly. Between the $30,000 worth o...
The Folly of Constant Asset Allocation over a Lifetime
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
This is a Sunday feature looking back at selected articles from the early days of this blog before readership had ramped up. Enjoy. Most commentators advise investors to shift money from equities to fixed income as they age, and this makes sense. We may disagree on the exact asset allocation percentages and exactly how soon before (or after) retirement to start lightening up on equities, but it seems clear enough that the average 40-year old should have more in equities than the average 80-year old. However, there is a body of academic work that argues that investors should maintain a constant asset allocation regardless of their age. This work is based on what is known as constant relative- risk aversion (CRRA). I’ll show the problems with CRRA in an example below. One consequence of the CRRA assumption is that the optimal asset allocation percentages remain constant regardless of the length of the investor’s investment horizon. Paul A. Samuelson advocates this view in his...
Short Takes: Flu Shot Edition
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
I got my flu shot Thursday. Actually, I got two shots: one for the H1N1 (swine) flu and the other for the “regular” seasonal flu. I only planned on getting the swine flu shot, but the young man I first encountered was a good salesman. The whole process took 25 minutes, including filling out a form, standing in line briefly, getting the shots, and waiting the mandatory 15 minutes to make sure I didn’t have some sort of reaction. Apparently, the long lines have dwindled and the bracelet system isn’t needed any more in my community. So far the shots hurt less than the standard tetanus booster. 1. Who knew there were so many ways to calculate the return on a portfolio? Preet answers a reader question about the Modified Dietz return calculation . 2. According to Larry MacDonald, parents in need can sue their adult children for support if they supported their children financially when they were minors . 3. Ellen Roseman helped some people who made an online purchase, but were cha...
Door-to-Door Hot Water Tank Salespeople
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Just when it seemed that the fixed rate natural gas marketers had stopped coming to my door, hot water tank marketers started ringing my doorbell. So far I’ve had two of these guys show up, both pretending to work for my natural gas supplier, but they don’t. So, why would I turn down a free hot water tank? After all, my tank is more than 5 years old and may not have peak efficiency (according to one salesperson). I’ll save money because of the lower gas consumption. What these guys failed to mention is that they don’t work for a company that I already have a relationship with, the rental charges on the new tank will be higher than I’m paying now, and I would have to lock in this rental charge rate for many years (15 years according to some reports). Based on the rental charge I extracted from one salesperson and a quote from Sears for a new hot water heater, I could buy a new tank for less than three years worth of rental charges. So, when I decide the time is right to dump m...
Cheap: The High Cost of Discount Culture
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
In her book, Cheap: The High Cost of Discount Culture , Ellen Ruppel Shell argues that our drive for low prices and inability to determine product quality has led to eroding job quality in the U.S. and the rest of the world. Large retailers give us cheap goods, but they also kill the jobs requiring skill and replace them with low-skill minimum-wage jobs. Parts of this book contain a balanced treatment of issues carefully explaining both sides. Other parts descend into more of a rant that still manages to be thoughtful and entertaining. While it’s unlikely that any reader would agree with all of the author’s arguments, this book is consistently interesting as it discusses price discounting, behavioural finance, outlet malls, craftsmen, food production, and trade with China. In the author’s view, most large retailers are a major part of the problem (most notably Walmart), but there are a few large retailers that set a good example (Wegmans and Costco). Walmart pays poor wages a...
How Price Discounts Affect Purchasing Decisions
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
When we see a consumer item deeply discounted, we tend to react in one of two ways: 1. “What a bargain! I’ll take five.” 2. “I knew those things were no good.” Sometimes we see a low price as an opportunity, and other times we see it as a sign of low quality. In their paper, Motivating Discounts: Price Motivated Reasoning , researchers On Amir and Erica Dawson sought to find out what determines which way we react. It turns out that our reactions are determined by what we thought of the product before seeing the discounted price. If we’re already attracted to a product, then we see a discount as a bargain. If we’re neutral or negative about a product, we see the discount as a sign of low quality. A curious side effect of our behaviour is that deep discounts “discourage purchases by all except those who liked the product in the first place.” We’re less likely to buy a deeply discounted unfamiliar product than we are to buy it at the regular price. We can see this happenin...
Preferred Share Yield Fantasy
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
The dividend yield reported on preferred shares is often misleading. These reported figures don’t take into account potential gains or losses when these shares are redeemed. Unwary investors can get surprised if they chase high yield without reading the fine print. Preferred shares are issued by companies to raise capital. Typically, they are sold for $25 each and promise fixed quarterly dividends until they are redeemed for $25 each. With common stock, shareholders own a slice of the company, but investors in preferred shares just get dividends. The name “preferred” comes from the fact that if the company has financial trouble, owners of preferred shares get paid before owners of common stock. Just because a preferred share starts and ends its life at $25 doesn’t mean that it holds steady at $25. If market conditions make the fixed dividend payment more or less attractive, the share’s price will fluctuate up and down. Usually preferred shares get a higher dividend (in perc...
Mutual Fund Full Disclosure
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
This is a Sunday feature looking back at selected articles from the early days of this blog before readership had ramped up. Enjoy. Many investors seem unaware of the fees they pay to own their mutual funds. Disclosure rules are intended to prevent this sort of problem, but they don’t seem to be effective enough. Suppose that you meet with a financial advisor and agree to invest with her. She seems like a great person, and her investment advice seems sensible as far as you can tell. Then she hands you the following disclosure statement: Initial portfolio size : $150,000 Initial investments : 30% bond fund, 50% stock fund, 20% international stock fund Estimated Fees : Immediately : $6300 Year 1 : $3135 Year 2 : $3324 Year 3 : $3526 Year 4 : $2718 Year 5 : $2781 Year 6 : $2838 Year 7 : $4815 Year 8 : $5164 Year 9 : $5540 Year 10 : $5944 10-year total : $46,086 Gulp. Surely these can’t be right. Will you really pay this much? Yes, you will. These numbers wer...
Short Takes: Exchange-Traded Notes and more
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
1. Preet explains how leveraged Exchange-Traded Notes (ETNs) hide snowballing interest charges . 2. Big Cajun Man found that opening a Registered Disability Saving Plan (RDSP) isn’t as easy as opening RRSPs and TFSAs . 3. Million Dollar Journey looks at how to claim a capital loss on a de-listed stock like Nortel . 4. Mike at Four Pillars decided to collapse his leveraged investing plan (the web page with this article has disappeared since the time of writing). The big danger for anyone considering leveraged investing is that it will seem like a great idea when the stock market is booming (expensive stocks) and will later seem like a terrible idea when the stock market is crashing (cheap stocks). At least Mike stuck it out for the last 9 months while stock prices rose from their lows. 5. Potato concludes his story of looking for a place to rent in Toronto and has some advice for landlords .
The Impact of MERs on Mutual Fund Returns
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
In a recent post, Canadian Capitalist showed that the effect of the HST on investor returns in mutual funds is small compared to the drag caused by fund MERs. I thought that while this conclusion is correct, his calculation of the MER impact was a little off. It turns out that we were both (slightly) wrong. In the example, Investor A puts $100 to work in the equity market for 25 years at an average annual return of 8%, giving a final portfolio value of $685. Investor B makes a similar $100 investment in a mutual fund with a 2.5% MER. Reasoning that Investor B’s return dropped to an average of 5.5% per year, his final portfolio value works out to $381. With the HST, the MER drag rises to 2.7% leaving 5.3% average return each year, and the final portfolio value is $363. So, compared to Investor A’s $685, the MER costs Investor B $304, and the HST costs him another $18. It’s clear that while the HST isn’t helping, the real problem is the high MER. At first I thought that thes...
What Will Happen to Interest Rates?
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
There is no shortage of commentators making predictions about interest rates. This is because they can get the attention of just about anyone who has investments. Those who depend on interest income want higher rates, and those who have stocks and bonds generally prefer dropping interest rates. It is possible to predict interest rates with better success than flipping a coin, but not in any useful sense. The market’s prediction on interest rates can be found by examining the current yield curve, which is a chart showing short-term and long-term borrowing interest rates. Typically, yield curves focus on government borrowing costs in the form of bond interest rates. The Bank of Canada maintains data on yield curves going back to 1986. Here is the most recent yield curve data for the last day of August: Typically, short term rates are lower than long-term rates because investors demand a higher return when their money is tied up longer. So, the yield curve tends to slope up...
Understanding Wall Street
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
The book Understanding Wall Street by Jeffrey Little and Lucien Rhodes is in its fifth edition and has a history going back 30 years and over a million books sold. The main strengths of this book are the wide range of investing concepts explained with clear language. The main weaknesses, although relatively minor, are the authors’ curious biases and the fact that the book hasn’t quite been updated for the internet age. The main topics covered are – the nature and history of different types of investments including stocks, bonds, commodities, and derivatives – accounting basics and the various fundamental analysis ratios such as price/earnings, dividend yield, and several others – technical analysis – the history of Wall Street and some of its colourful personalities – price bubbles through history Newspaper and the Internet Curiously, a separate section is devoted to the internet, rather than just mentioning its use as necessary in the other sections. Some of the discus...
Financial Advisor Self-Regulation
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
In an address to the Advocis symposium, Ontario Minister of Revenue John Wilkinson urged financial advisors to adopt a system of self-regulation. He argues that fraud is rare and self-regulation is better than government-imposed regulation. (Thanks to Preet at Where Does All My Money Go? for pointing me to this story.) While eliminating fraud is a worthwhile goal, outright fraud is not the major problem we have today among financial advisors. The real problem is systemic. Conflict of interest rules this industry. Until the system is fixed, neither self-regulation nor government-imposed regulation is likely to help. To defend these claims, let’s start with a small story about a couple in my extended family who changed their lives by uprooting themselves and moving to a warm country with nice scuba diving. I prefer not to name the country, but it has been declared the most corrupt nation on earth in the past. Among the many amusing stories of life in a different country, thi...
Deferred Sales Charges Permit Up-Front Commissions
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
This is a Sunday feature looking back at selected articles from the early days of this blog before readership had ramped up. Enjoy. All mutual funds have a management expense ratio (MER) that covers the costs of running the fund. In addition to the MER, some mutual funds charge “loads”. Loads are fees paid either when you buy into a fund (front-end load) or sell out of a fund (back-end load). Back-end loads are also called deferred sales charges. The purpose of a front-end load is simple enough. The financial advisor who sells you a mutual fund is paid out of front-end loads. But what about funds that have deferred sales charges? Does the financial advisor have to wait until you sell to get his money? Things look even worse for the financial advisor when the deferred sales charges are “contingent”. This means that the sales charge declines over time. In a typical arrangement, if you sell in the first year, you get charged 5% of your initial investment, but only 4% if you...
Short Takes: Alternative Investments and more
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
I had the opportunity to give an invited talk to an investment club called the Ottawa Share Club on Wednesday night. I was peppered with many interesting questions some of which are likely to inspire future posts on this blog. Many thanks to the club members and specifically co-founder James Palmer for the invitation. 1. Jonathan Chevreau notes that the recent bear market has motivated financial advisors to recommend more alternative investments (the web page with this article has disappeared since the time of writing). I think this characterization is too charitable for these financial advisors. Clients are more inclined to buy alternative investments because of the perception that standard investments don’t work any more. These financial advisors are willing to sell whatever the client will buy as long as the advisors make money from it. My characterization may be a little too uncharitable, but I bet it’s closer to the truth. 2. Canadian Financial DIY reports on rese...
RRSPs and the GIS Don’t Mix Well
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Canadian seniors with low incomes receive a Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) from the government. Within a certain income range, each additional dollar of income reduces the GIS payments by 50 cents. This amounts to a 50% tax on this income. Combining this with the regular income taxes, the effective tax rate on RRSP withdrawals can be over 70%. When Canadians draw money from a registered plan (RRSP, RRIF, or a registered annuity), the payment counts as income for tax purposes. Low-income seniors who collect the GIS may end up keeping only a small fraction of their registered plan withdrawals. I have looked at some test cases to try to come up with a strategy to keep more of the money. Be warned that my analysis is based on a number of assumptions that may prove to be false. At the end of this post I outline some of the reasons why this analysis may have to be modified. Basic Scenario Annie is a single 71-year old living in Ontario collecting Old-Age Security (OAS) of $...
Understanding Car Lease Payments
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Frugal Trader at Million Dollar Journey had an interesting post explaining how car lease payments are calculated . The formula is simple enough until it adds a lease fee that involves a mysterious “money factor”. It all seems like extra profit for the dealership, but the truth is less nefarious. According to commenter Robert, this money factor is only used in the U.S.; Canadians use the exact calculation given at the end of this post. An Example I’ll use the same example that Frugal Trader used: – Honda CRV: MSRP + freight + PDI: $29,880 – Residual Value after 3 years: $15,276.60 – Depreciation (price minus residual): $14,603.40 – Depreciation per month: $405.65 So, if the interest rate were 0%, then the payments should be just this $405.65 per month. But interest is a fact of life and we need to figure that out too. The accurate way to calculate interest involves present value calculations. I’ll leave the details of this accurate method to the end of this post f...
Are Financial Advisors Worth 1% of Your Savings Each Year?
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
The recent introduction of mutual funds that hold a single ETF and pay financial advisors 1% trailers each year for selling these funds has stirred a debate: are financial advisors worth 1% of your savings each year? Of course, the answer depends on the investor and financial advisor. Knowledgeable investors won’t find it worthwhile to pay anyone 1% of their assets for financial advice every year. Poor financial advisors aren’t worth 1% each year no matter how little the investors know about investing. But what about the combination of investors with medium to low knowledge and advisors who are middling to very good? People differ on this question, and I don’t have the data to answer it definitively. However, I can examine my own experience. When I first began investing in more than bank GICs, I turned to a financial advisor who gave a presentation at my workplace. For about 5 years I owned mutual funds recommended by this advisor. For two years during this period I owned ...
Beating the Odds in Vegas
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
I actually enjoy the occasional trip to Las Vegas, but I’m not the kind of gambler casinos want to see. It’s nearly impossible to beat the odds playing games against the house in a casino, but I do have one small idea for beating the house (sort of) at the dice game craps. Before I go any further, I should mention that this idea hasn’t worked for anyone else who has played craps with me. It requires patience that the typical gambler doesn’t have. So, I don’t recommend trying this. I start by finding a craps table that allows bets as small as $5. Some casinos don’t have any tables with bets this small. Then I only bet what is called the pass line. It is the most boring possible bet, but it has very close to fair odds. Out of 495 bets, the casino expects the player to win 244 times and lose 251 times, a net loss of 7 bets. Out of 495 bets, I expect to lose $35, which works out to just over 7 cents per bet. It takes about 3.2 rolls of the dice, on average, to decide each bet...
Dominated Strategies and Index Funds
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
This is a Sunday feature looking back at selected articles from the early days of this blog before readership had ramped up. Enjoy. A strategy is said to be dominated if it is guaranteed to give the same or worse results than some other strategy. This term is usually used in game theory, but it can apply equally well to investing. Most of the time when we have a choice between two alternatives, we don’t know for certain which choice will lead to a better outcome. Should you buy stocks or bonds? In a given year, stocks might give better returns or bonds might give better returns. In some cases, the choice turns out to be clearer. Suppose that I offer you a bet: we’ll toss a coin, and the winner gets $100 from the loser. I see you hesitate, and I make a second offer: I’ll give you $10, and then we’ll toss the coin for $100. No matter which way the coin comes up, you’ll be ahead $10 taking the second offer rather than the first. This means that the first choice is dominated...
Short Takes: Insurance Claims and more
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
1. Making a claim on your insurance is often something you have to do at a traumatic time in your life. MoneyNing explains the things you shouldn’t say to your insurance agent if you want you claim approved. 2. Canadian Financial DIY reports on rule changes with Locked-in Retirement Accounts making it possible to shift money to a regular RRSP . 3. Big Cajun Man likens the choice between a fixed or variable rate mortgage to the choice for New England to punt or go for it on fourth down in a recent football game against Indianapolis . He’s right that fixed rate mortgages are the more conservative choice, but this doesn’t apply to the football game. Football games don’t have intermediate outcomes; the only possibilities are win, loss, or tie. New England coach Belichick made the right choice. 4. Mr. Cheap thinks it’s OK not to save for retirement in your 20s and 30s (the web page with this article disappeared since the time of writing). This is another one of those cases ...
Gold Hits Record High! Or Maybe Not
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
We’ve had no shortage of headlines proclaiming “Gold Hits New Record!” When you’re in the business of writing something new every day, it’s easier to write about gold prices than to find something substantial to talk about. Leaving the value of such reports aside, are they true? Well, recent stories announced that gold had reached US$1150 per ounce. Back in 1980, gold peaked at US$850 per ounce, which is obviously a smaller number than US$1150, but what about inflation? US$850 in 1980 had the same buying power as US$2230 has today. So, an ounce of gold today has a little over half the buying power it had at gold’s peak in 1980. I’d say that this is a much more reasonable way to judge the price of gold, but it makes for less exciting headlines. If we look at everything in absolute dollars, we can pump out headlines for record prices of many items every time inflation nudges up another 0.1%. Alarmist stories are great for reporters, but not much good for readers. Wake me up...
Credit Cards with 0% Balance Transfer for Life
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
We’re all familiar with the idea of introductory rates. They are a good price that starts low to draw you in and jumps up later. This is common with internet providers, cable television, and credit card balance transfers. But, what if the fantastic deal stays in place indefinitely? There has to be a catch, right? MoneyNing wrote about a variant of the 0% credit card balance transfer that I hadn’t seen before. Usually, the deal is that the debt transferred to the new card is charged no interest for a few months, and then the interest rate shoots way up. There are two main ways people get caught with this deal. The first is that they are unable to pay the balance off before the interest rate shoots up and they have to pay excessive interest. The second catch is that if they use the card for new purchases, payments go toward the 0% balance and the new purchases start collecting high interest right away (although there is pending legislation to force credit card companies to ap...
ETF Pollution Rises to a New Level
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Among investors who have heard of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), their level of understanding often doesn’t go much beyond “ETF good and mutual fund bad”. This shouldn’t be too surprising. We can’t all be experts at everything. But the line between ETFs and mutual funds is becoming blurred and investors will need more knowledge to make good choices. Many investors demand ETFs from their advisors, and now Invesco Trimark is offering “hybrids” of ETFs and mutual funds to meet the demand. We should be suspicious about calling these products ETFs when they can be sold by advisors who are only licensed to sell mutual funds. Most of these new products are actually regular mutual funds that invest in a single ETF. These new funds pay a trailer fee of 1% per year to advisors who sell the funds to their clients. Hapless clients, who can now be told they are buying ETFs, will pay a management fee that includes the 1% trailer plus the management fee of the underlying ETF for a total betw...
Archive
Archive
-
-
- New Year’s Eve Preparations
- The Psychology of Medical Coverage
- 20/20 Hindsight
- How to Pay Less and Keep More for Yourself
- My Top 3 Investing Mistakes
- Walking a Mile
- Winning the Loser’s Game
- Irrational Need for the Latest Investment to Perfo...
- Mutual Fund Front Running
- Short Takes: Trading Gift Cards, Men’s Health, and...
- MER Drag on Returns in Pictures
- Sometimes Frugality can be Taken Too Far
- An Experiment with the Modified 4% Rule
- Modifying the 4% Rule
- The Folly of Constant Asset Allocation over a Life...
- Short Takes: Flu Shot Edition
- Door-to-Door Hot Water Tank Salespeople
- Cheap: The High Cost of Discount Culture
- How Price Discounts Affect Purchasing Decisions
- Preferred Share Yield Fantasy
- Mutual Fund Full Disclosure
- Short Takes: Exchange-Traded Notes and more
- The Impact of MERs on Mutual Fund Returns
- What Will Happen to Interest Rates?
- Understanding Wall Street
-
- Financial Advisor Self-Regulation
- Deferred Sales Charges Permit Up-Front Commissions
- Short Takes: Alternative Investments and more
- RRSPs and the GIS Don’t Mix Well
- Understanding Car Lease Payments
- Are Financial Advisors Worth 1% of Your Savings Ea...
- Beating the Odds in Vegas
- Dominated Strategies and Index Funds
- Short Takes: Insurance Claims and more
- Gold Hits Record High! Or Maybe Not
- Credit Cards with 0% Balance Transfer for Life
- ETF Pollution Rises to a New Level
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-