Even Dimensional Fund Advisors Struggles with Inflation Statistics
Inflation is a risk we have to face in financial planning, particularly in retirement. We need to measure inflation risk correctly to be able to make reasonable financial plans. The best guide we have to the future takes into account past inflation statistics. But the field of statistics is full of subtleties, and even Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) can make mistakes. DFA creates good funds, and their advisors tend to do good work for their clients. I’d prefer to find errors in the work of a less investor-friendly investment firm, but they provided a clear example to learn from. They misapplied a statistical rule, and as a result, they misinterpreted the history of inflation over the past century. I discussed this issue with Larry Swedroe in posts on X. I respect Larry and have followed his work as he tirelessly explains evidence based investing to the masses. A Simple Example To explain the problem, let’s first begin with a simpler example. So...
This series of pics should be the next cover of The Journal of Behavioural Finance. Love it!
ReplyDeletePerfect! It kills me to see posts that say "I've had enough -- I'm selling all my stocks" right at the end of one of the worst months in market history.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Preet. This was one of the rare times that I was inspired to do something mildly artistic. It was fun!
ReplyDeletePatrick: I agree. I've seen too many comments like this as well. Even bloggers who say all the right things like "stay the course" often then go on to advise shifting out of riskier assets, etc. Of course, this just means selling some stocks rather than selling all stocks. Even people who should know better seem unable to stop themselves from selling low and buying high.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, picture # 2 is how most people seem to invest.
ReplyDeleteCC: I assume you mean that most people try to invest based on the "Fantasy" picture. Sadly, some end up with the reverse of the "Fantasy" picture where they buy at the top and sell at the bottom.
ReplyDeleteOops. I meant to say the reverse of picture # 2 is how people seem to invest, at least, judging from studies that show actual stock returns are much less than market returns.
ReplyDeleteBrilliant. I was going to post earlier in the week, but I couldn't think of anything insightful to say... still haven't.
ReplyDelete